Sunday, July 25, 2010

some gymnastics math

it seems like the us will be in trouble again at worlds. ppl say we would have lost the olympics anyway because china's sv was higher than ours. it seems like we might have this problem again.

i realize, though, that i'm jumping to conclusions. these are based on classics and chinese nationals. i dont think it's fair to compare since key people were missing from classics.

what i did/am doing: i'm looking at the us scorers in the 6.0+ d-score and assuming they make the team.

macko - 6.2 bars - barf, i don't really like her
kytra - 6.1 beam
alicia - 6.3 vault, 6.0 beam
bross - 6.2 bars (horribly overscored 9.25 e-score), 6.0 beam
bridget - 6.0 bars

just looking at that, it looks like we're in trouble. only 2 of those people are definites.

lets look at chinese nationals. this is also based on names i've heard thrown around for them
he kexin - 7.4 bars,
deng linlin - 6.8 beam,
su liu - 6.4 beam, 5.8 floor,
wu liufang - 6.9 bars, 6.0 beam,
huang quishan - 6.6 bars,

actually, scratch what i said before. i think it will become a battle of power-house strength versus artistic-ness. oh yeah, artistry. china is clearly dominant on bars with their lowest sv being 6.6. i'm confident hexin is going so she can win the bars final medal. their beam is higher than us values unless bridget didn't throw something. us seems to be better on vault, thank you asac. based on nationals, the highest sv from china was 6.0 from li yiting (whose other vault was 5.0). she has the highest average. i'm confident the us can better that with asac, kytra/kayla, bross maybe? not sure but it's higher than china's. with floor, it seems the us will have a slight advantage. but that's not to say there are more chances for errors on us floors - see out of bounds by nastia and shawn in 08. we shall see

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